Anyone still thinking in pre-AI terms does not fully grasp the transformation we are experiencing, writes Former Cisco Executive Chairman John Chambers in his 42nd exclusive column for The Innovator. Four Big Tech companies will invest roughly $670 billion into AI infrastructure just this year – and there will be much, much more outside of these companies. That level of capital deployment is not simply a bet; it is a driver of outcomes.
Over the past decade, the Magnificent 7 stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) have delivered growth that, on average, dramatically outpaced even a high-performing S&P 500. For years, they carried the market. But past performance doesn’t guarantee future results – a hard truth that even the tech sector’s brightest stars are now confronting.
In the last year, we’ve seen a widening separation inside that elite group. Here are the year-over-year stats as of mid-February: Google (Alphabet), which was trailing just a year ago, is now leading the group, up 64%. Nvidia follows at 31% and Tesla has gained 17%. Microsoft – once praised for its early OpenAI investment – is roughly flat. Amazon and Meta are both down 13%. The takeaway? The rising tide is no longer raising all boats.
That’s why, as Chambers outlined in his top ten predictions for 2026, there will be significant divergence between the AI winners and losers, from the Magnificent 7 all the way down to startups. The traditional bell-shaped curve is quickly flattening, as evidenced by the Mag 7 stocks. Google and Nvidia are experiencing, in essence, all the growth, while Microsoft and Tesla are in the middle, and Amazon and Meta are at the bottom.
If you’re a leader and asking yourself, “What does this mean for me and my company?” – read Chambers’ column to get his advice on how to navigate the year ahead.
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